A WPA Intelligence/Club for Grown poll released Monday found that Harriet Hageman, a Trump-endorsed candidate, leads incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) by 28 points in the Republican primary on August 16.
Hageman beat Cheney by a margin of 59 percent to 31 percent among likely primary voters.
“Those figures are based on a certain model in which 13 percent of the primary’s voters are Dems (Wyoming permits party-switchers to participate in primaries),” according to Mark Caputo NBC News. “The poll tested two additional cases, where Democrats were 20 percent or 25 percent of the electorate, and Hageman still prevailed by 18 and 12 percentage points, respectively.”
Because Cheney has courted Democratic support, the poll focused on Democrat voters. According to a Casper Star-Tribune poll on Friday, Democrats are not likely to assist Cheney in winning the primary because not many live in Wyoming.
“While Cheney has the support of 69% of registered Dems who are planning to participate in the Republican primary, that level of support leaves her far behind Hageman,” according to a Friday poll. “However, because there are so few Dems in Wyoming, crossover votes are not likely to make a difference.”
The Mason-Dixon poll showed Cheney losing the election to Hageman (52-30 percent). This poll is an outlier. Other polls show Hageman leading Cheney by around 28 points. On Monday, PredictIt’s betting odds show that Hageman is expected to win handily against Cheney. Cheney’s chances of victory were set at 5 cents.
“Liz Cheney will get beaten,” Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy’s Brad Coker predicted. “That is an inevitable conclusion.”
“This election is more about Liz Cheney than about Donald Trump,” Coker continued. “Any candidate who ran for office to the right of Cheney would most likely win this election even without Trump.”
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