According to the Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, when presented with a list of various Republicans, 39 percent of likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters picked Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as their first choice to be the 2024 Republican nominee, whereas 37 percent selected former President Donald Trump.
The data indicate a statistical tie, as they fall within the 5.5 percent margin of sampling error for likely 2024 GOP primary voters.
Desantis was the only individual to poll close to Trump, with 9% selecting Mike Pence as their preferred choice and 6 percent preferring Nikki Haley.
Because New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate in the last five cycles, a Republican challenger would have to snap a long losing streak to ensure the state red.
In hypothetical head-to-head election races in the state, DeSantis outperforms Trump by a small amount. In a Biden versus DeSantis contest, Biden receives 46% and DeSantis 47%. However, in a Biden versus Trump race, Biden gets 50 percent while Trump gets 43 percent.
None of the three men has a strong reputation in the state. While 59% have an unfavorable view of Trump, 33 percent have a favorable opinion of him. Meanwhile, while 56% have an unfavorable impression of Biden, only 26 percent have a positive opinion of him. DeSantis is also in better standing: 45% hold an unfavorable view of him.
Trump has claimed that he thinks he would beat DeSantis in a 2024 Republican primary. “I’m very close to making a decision,” Trump told the New Yorker, regarding whether to compete for re-election. “I don’t know if Ron is running and I don’t ask about it. It’s his choice but I think I would win.”